eurosong:

Hi there, folks! We finally have the running order for this year’s Eurovision - I’ve been waiting so long to get my hands on one of these! I of course had to take a look at starting positions to try to gain some insight into how countries may have done in the semi-finals, using both what the juxtapositions made suggest to me, and how previously songs did in those positions.

The evening will kick off with Cyprus and close with San Marino. The opening and curtain-closing positions have a lot of commonalities in this producer-created running order era - they tend to pick up-tempo songs that did relatively well in the semis (or, amongst big 6 in the closing position, are relatively well liked) but not considered contenders for the win, and indeed, both countries’ odds of winning dropped since the running order was released.

The famed ‘death slot’ of second has constantly been used for 9th place qualifiers instead of 10th, oddly enough - with the sole exception being Spain’s doomed Tu canción in 2018. It seems like Albania, who were also placed here in 2019, may have repeated history. Following them, Belgium and particularly Israel strike me as having probably been marginal qualifiers.

We then get the first of many unusual sandwiches of fan favourites - two uptempo, lyrically feminist songs from Russia and Malta. Despite the latter being a bigger bookies’ fave, they may have underwhelmed, particularly in the televote, to get put after the powerhouse of Manizha and in a position with a worse track record. Portugal are next, contrasting well with the two songs proceding it and in a slot that’s had a few big successes. They almost certainly did well with the juries are probably outperformed expectations with the televote.

Serbia follow in a slot that has contained nothing but top 5 finishers in their semifinal, and I firmly believe Hurricane did the same in SF2 this year. UK is up next in an historically decent slot, albeit one in which they themselves have underperformed before. The banger vibes may be undermined by having been proceded by something with even more energy. Greece gets one of the worst slots in recent years and the worst of the latter first half. Coming after two uptempos and before a bookies’ fav like Switzerland makes me think they seriously underperformed.

Speaking of Switzerland, they’re in a slot that has hosted successes like J'ai cherché, YLMWA and Amar pelos dois - and the juxtaposition with what surrounds them makes me think they won their semi or came close. Iceland follows in a decent slot; they may contrast positively with Switzerland and definitely will with Spain’s ballad. Moldova has a pretty strong position before Germany, who are slotted into the worst position statistically of the entire second half. Finland come after them, a jarring juxtaposition, and in a starting position that has seen mid-table semi-finalist qualifiers but also two no-hope Big 5ers. My guess would be they managed 6-7th in the semi.

Bulgaria will contrast well with them, and whilst their starting position is statistically not one of the best, the cordon sanitaire it enjoys of being the only down-tempo song with two up-tempo numbers side by side make me think Victoria managed top 3 in her semi-final. Lithuania are in an a priori great position, but between the emotional moment from Bulgaria and the chaotic, infectious energy of Ukraine, I fear they may have underperformed in their semi.

France enjoys a similar cordon sanitaire to Bulgaria, reflecting their favourite status. Azerbaijan has the job of following Barbara and makes me think Efendi could have only scraped into the final. Norway is next in one of the historically best spots of the final and may have outdone expectations. The hosts, Netherlands, have been given a rough deal by having to precede big fave Italy. Sweden, whilst in one of the most advantageous spots historically, may well be very squeezed between Måneskin and Senhit w. Flo Rida.